𝗘𝘀𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗡𝗮𝗰𝗵𝘂𝗹𝗮, 𝗞𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘂, 𝗟𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗸𝗮 | 𝟮𝟱𝘁𝗵 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 — In the first quarter of 2026, the United States economy grew by 0.6%. The United Kingdom managed 1.6 %. China, long the world's benchmark for economic ambition, posted 5.0%. Zambia recorded 7.7%, the fastest among them, driven by soil, trade, and a broadening economic.
𝗔 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗪𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀
The 7.7% figure, published by the 𝗭𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗮 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 in its first quarter 2026 reportfollows a 4.5%reading for the same period in 2025, meaning the acceleration from one year to the next spans 3.2 percentage points. The gap is a meaningful shift in trajectory and not a minor upward shift. GDP at purchasers' prices reached K191.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up from K153.9 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2025. ty These figures are the combined output of farms, factories, trading floors, construction sites, and communication networks across a country of nearly 20 million people.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing drove the expansion. The sector grew by 21.4%in the first quarter of 2026 and contributed 1.9 percentage points to the overall GDP expansion, the single largest contribution of any industry. It is a result that carries particular weight when read alongside the data revision for the fourth quarter of 2025, which saw agricultural growth adjusted upward by 12.1 percentage points to 46.9%. The pattern across both periods tells a consistent story: Zambia's fields are producing at a good, steady scale.
Wholesale and retail trade added 0.9 percentage points to overall growth, expanding by 21.4%, an almost identical growth rate to agriculture, though from a different economic base. Information and communication contributed 0.8 percentage points. Manufacturing, transportation, and storage each contributed 0.5 percentage points. Mining and construction each added 0.4 percentage points. Six industries in total, mining, trade, transport, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, accounted for 61.6% of GDP in the first quarter, with mining and quarrying holding the largest share at 14.8%.
The breadth of this sectoral contribution is significant. A 7.7%growth rate stitched together from seven or eight reasonably healthy sectors is a different story from one built on a single commodity boom. It does not guarantee resilience, but it raises the possibility of it.
𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Not every sector moved upward. Administrative and support service activities contracted by 8.9%, water supply fell by 5.0%, and professional and scientific activities declined by 0.2%. These are not large sectors relative to total GDP, but the contraction in water supply sits uncomfortably alongside an agricultural expansion story. A country growing its food output at over 20% in a quarter needs reliable water infrastructure to sustain that performance. The data suggests that particular assumption should not be taken for granted.
𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀, 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆
The growth story runs alongside an inflation picture that is, on balance, stable but not uniform. Annual headline inflation for June 2026 was recorded at 6.5%, a marginal easing from 6.6% in May. Monthly inflation fell to 0.1% in June from 0.2% in May, a small but consistent signal that price pressures are not escalating.
Food inflation, which carries the heaviest weighting in Zambia's consumer price basket, came in at 6.7% in June. Price movements in cereals, mealie meal, maize, and rice, as well as fresh milk, sugar, and cooking oil drove much of that figure. The commodity-level data tells a more concrete story: the national average price of a 25-kilogram bag of breakfast mealie meal fell 11.41% year-on-year to K272.66 by June 2026, and maize grain dropped 12.52% in a single month to K110.80 per twenty-litre tin. For households that spend a significant share of their income on staple foods, these are material movements.
Non-food inflation sat at 6.0%, influenced by the cost of motor vehicles, fuel, and air transport. Health costs, however, continued to press upward at 9.6%, joined by housing and utilities at 7.5%. These categories compress household budgets directly at the centre.
Regional variation adds a further layer of complexity. Lusaka Province posted the highest annual inflation rate in the country at 8.4%, while Luapula Province recorded the lowest at 4.0%. A gap of 4.4 percentage points between provinces reflects real differences in supply chains, local market structures, and the distribution of economic activity, differences that a national headline figure, however useful, cannot fully capture.
𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿, 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱
On the external side, Zambia's trade position strengthened considerably through May 2026. Total trade reached K53.2 billion that month, a 12.6% rise from April's K47.2 billion. The trade surplus came in at K7.0 billion, double the K3.5 billion surplus recorded in April. Export earnings rose 18.7% in May, led by intermediate goods, which held an 82.1% share of total export value.
Refined copper drove much of that performance. Export earnings from refined copper grew 21.6% to K19.6 billion in May, supported by an 18.6% rise in export volumes and a 4.8% increase in the London Metal Exchange price, which reached USD 13,507 per metric tonne. Canada and Asia were the dominant export destinations, accounting for 32.4 and 32.1% of export market share respectively. China remained Zambia's primary import source at 28.7%, supplying road tractors and heavy machinery, equipment that, notably, feeds directly into the construction, transport, and agricultural sectors that contributed so much to first quarter growth.
Road transport moved 96.4% of Zambia's export value between January and May 2026. That statistic, easy to overlook, speaks to the degree of dependence on overland logistics in a landlocked economy and to the infrastructure investment calculus that any serious reading of this growth story must eventually confront.
The first quarter figures for 2026 demonstrate that Zambia is moving measurably across multiple fronts, even as structural challenges remain. The pace of that movement, and whether the sectors pulling in the wrong direction can be turned before they pull back on the rest, is the question that the next set of numbers will need to answer.
