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Zambia's economic indicators present mixed signals as October inflation climbs to 15.7%, with food inflation surging to an alarming 18.2%, according to the latest Zambia Statistical Agency data. The copper sector shows contrasting trends, while export volumes dropped 2.0% to 63,000 metric tonnes in September, prices rebounded to US$9,254.5 per metric tonne, marking a promising 3.2% increase after four months of decline. However, the broader economy faces headwinds, with September's trade deficit widening to K1.3 billion from August's K0.6 billion deficit. This gives a synopsis of ZamStats' latest indicators, providing crucial insights for policymakers, investors, and business leaders as Zambia navigates through these economic cycles.

Inflation News

Zambia's annual inflation rate increased 10 basis points to 15.7% in October 2024, up from 15.6% in September.
This means prices of goods and services rose by an average of 15.7% between October 2023 and October 2024.

Food inflation in October was up 60 basis points to 18.2% from 17.9% in September. Main contributors: Bread, cereals, meat, and fish.
Non-food inflation declined further down to 12.2%, from 12.4% in September. Main contributors: Household textiles and appliances.

Breakdown Of Zambia's 15.7% Inflation Rate (October 2024)

1] Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages: 10.5%, up from 10.4% in September

2] Non-food inflation rate returned the September levels at 5.2%.

Top 5 Provincial Contributors to Zambia's 15.7% Inflation (October 2024)

Lusaka: 4.1%
Copperbelt: 3.2%
Central: 2.2%
Southern: 1.8%
Eastern: 1.4%

Densely populated provinces contribute more to national inflation rate.

Overall Monthly Inflation

Overall monthly inflation for September came in unchanged to its level in September at 0.8%

International Merchandise Trade

The cumulative total trade year to September 2024 surged by 37.2% to K412.8 billion, up from K300.7 billion recorded over the same period in 2023.

Export and imports accounted for K209.3 billion (50.7%) and K203.4 billion (49.3%) of the value respectively.

Zambia's trade balance in September posting a deficit of K1.3 billion, up from K0.6 billion deficit in August. This marks the third deficit in 2024 as shown

Zambia Copper Exports Update (September 2024)

Refined copper earnings dipped 6.4% to 15.4 billion September, down from K16.4 billion in August
Copper export volumes slid 2.0% to 63.0 thousand mt in September, down from 64.3 thousand mt, in August
The LME copper price firmed to US$9,254.5 per mt, up 3.2% from US$8,963.7 per mt, reversing the fourth monthly decline since the year-high of US$10,100 per mt in May 2024.

Zambia's Refined Copper Exports volumes

Cumulative refined copper export volume from January to September 2024 totalled 574,500 mt, down 3.4% from 594,700 mt in the same period of 2023.

Zambia's Export Composition (September 2024)

Intermediate goods: 87.5% - Mainly copper anodes & refined cathodes
Combined other categories: 12.5% - Raw materials, Consumer goods & Capital goods
The persistently huge dominance of copper products in Zambia's exports underscores the country's undiversified export base.

Zambia's Five Major Export Destinations

Zambia's Import Composition (August2024)

Intermediate goods: 38.2%
Consumer Goods 32.2%
Capital goods: 22.8%
Raw materials: 6.8%

Zambia’s Five Major Import Sources

Final Note

On November 18th, Zambia will celebrate the African Statistics Day 2024 focusing on "Supporting education by modernizing production of fit for purpose statistics." The event aligns with the African Union's vision to educate and skill Africa for the 21st century, emphasizing the role of statistics in national development.

ZamStats will mark the occasion with key releases including the 2024 Demographic Health Survey and 2022 Census data, alongside exhibitions and stakeholder engagements across provinces. The initiative aims to enhance statistical literacy and build an integrated data system for better decision-making in Zambia.

Reference
Zambia Statistics Agency (2024) The Monthly, Vol. 258, September.