Zambia's Power Crisis Exposes Fatal Flaw in Water Management

Mozel Chimuka, Mulungushi Conference centre, 11 September - The numbers tell a story of spectacular failure that no amount of technical jargon can disguise. Zambia sits on 3,800 megawatts of installed electricity capacity but can only generate 1,200 megawatts, leaving the nation trapped in rolling blackouts while its dams run perilously low. The lights went out across Zambia months ago, and they're still not coming back on. At an energy conference in Lusaka, water and power officials talked about their water problems. The truth was clear from their numbers: the Kariba Dam's floodgates haven't opened since 2014, and the amount of water available has dropped from 40 billion to 15 billion cubic meters. Due to climate change, old plans for managing water are no longer useful. Their meetings showed that relying on just one source for a whole country's energy is a huge and risky bet, especially as that source becomes less dependable. This disaster wasn't a surprise; it was years in the making. It was caused by overconfidence, poor planning, and relying too much on a single source of energy.

The warning signs were everywhere. According to Pherry Mwiinga, a hydrologist who has watched water levels for 30 years, "We last spilled around 2014. Since then we've been spilling maybe just for equipment maintenance." The math is hard to ignore. Normally, the Zambezi River Authority gives out about 40 billion cubic meters of water each year for power. But in 2024, the drought forced that amount down to just 15 billion cubic meters, less than 40% of what's normal. While this year's allocation of 27 billion cubic meters is better, it's still not enough to power the country.

Meanwhile, the need for electricity kept growing. Utilities built more power plants, but instead of using them for a backup, they had to run them all the time, using up even more of the limited water.

The crisis has caused a bitter fight between farmers and power companies over water. Farmers need water to grow crops, but they also need electricity to run their irrigation systems. The power company, ZESCO, needs water to make that electricity. It's a no-win situation.

Jack Munthali, an environmentalist from ZESCO, admitted: "The water agriculture nexus, yes, which is something that happened. What we've learned from there is that collaborative use of water is actually very important."

This crisis has a real human cost. Hospitals rely on expensive diesel generators. Factories sit empty. Students study by candlelight. Small businesses that survived COVID-19 are now closing for good. Faced with this emergency, some companies are trying new things. For example, Kafue Gorge Lower is adding 200 megawatts of solar power to its hydro plant. The idea is simple: use solar power when the sun is out and then switch to hydro at night, using the dam like a giant battery.

Mr. Chanda Chisha, a hydrology manager from Lunsemfwa Hydropower Company, explained that his company is also embracing this idea. "We basically bring on board aspects such as hybridisation,” he said, ”Where we combine the use of solar as well as hydropower generation, so that there's that balance to match up on the deficit that we basically have from the water resource point of view."

The Zambezi River Authority is even considering a plan to install 2,000 megawatts of floating solar panels on Lake Kariba to take advantage of the lake's massive surface area while also reducing evaporation.

Banks are also getting involved. David Chanda from Stanbic Bank, which has helped pay for solar projects, said, "Power specifically is a key driver to economic activity and economic growth. So for us to support Zambia, we want to focus on diversification of energy."

Even with these new ideas, there are big challenges. Zambia's water system is a mess of different organizations and rules. Permits for hydropower projects only last 25 to 30 years, but the dams themselves can last 50 years or more. This makes it risky for companies to invest a lot of money. Sham Tembo, Manager of Operations and Plant Performance, from Kafue Gorge Lower explained that his company's power generation depends entirely on water released from upstream facilities. "We have to adjust generation based on the inflows that we are receiving," he said. "Lately what has been happening is that there's been a deviation between what the projections were given and the actuals. And this has been attributed to climate change."

The crisis also shows the dangers of a single energy source. When the country relied too heavily on hydroelectric power, it created a weakness that has now been exposed. The country needs to build a more resilient energy system.

Ultimately, the responsibility to solve this crisis rests with the Zambian people and their leaders. They need to move from talking about "adaptive management strategies" to actually putting them into action. The country has plenty of sunshine, new technologies, and banks willing to help. The choice is clear. The time for action is now. Zambia must decide whether it will build a stronger energy future or continue to struggle. For 20 million Zambians, the answer will determine whether their lights come back on for good.