An Aviation Crisis is Choking SADC Airlines as Operating Costs Surge

Clarence K. Chongo, Ciêla Resort & Spa, LUSAKA | 17 October 2025 — Southern African airlines are trailing every other region on the African continent. Recent IATA data confirms it. Aviation-sector leaders who gathered at the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) conference in Lusaka this week articulated it without equivocation. The statistical reality is stark. Across every metric that measures airline health—profitability, network expansion, fleet modernisation, passenger recovery—SADC carriers underperform their counterparts in West Africa, East Africa, and North Africa. The gap is structural and systemic, indicative of a deep rot.

Professor John Lamola, who serves both as AASA Chairman and CEO of the SAA Group, described the region as occupying a "zone of struggle" where financial viability depends on threads that grow thinner by the month. At Ciêla Resort & Spa, with government officials including Permanent Secretary Dr. Fred Muaga and Zambia Civil Aviation Director General Captain Lube in attendance, alongside international delegates from IATA and AFRAA, Lamola dispensed with diplomatic language.

"The stated mission of AASA," he explained, "is to focus on matters that directly affect the financial viability and sustainability of airlines in the SADC region. Our region among the different geoeconomic regions on the continent is the worst performing, and by extrapolation, one will say it is one of the least performing regions in terms of the buoyancy of the airline industry."

That assessment, delivered in a crowded conference hall, crystallised a problem that has been quietly mounting for years.

The Divergence

The COVID-19 pandemic decimated aviation worldwide. What happened after, however, tells a different story depending on where you look. Carriers in other regions rebuilt passenger numbers. They restored route networks. They accessed capital to renew fleets. SADC airlines did none of these things with consistency or success.

Demand patterns reflect national economic performance. Passenger air travel mirrors the health of the economies those airlines serve. Where regional economies weakened—and they have weakened considerably—airline traffic contracted. Cargo volumes followed the same trajectory. Without healthy demand, carriers cannot justify the capital investment required to modernise fleets. Aging aircraft consume more fuel and demand more maintenance. Both facts eat into margins that are already razor-thin. Without the ability to finance modern equipment, routes that might otherwise prove viable simply remain unserved. The cycle perpetuates itself.

Where the Pressure Points Cluster

The aerospace supply chain crisis strikes first. Production of complete aircraft, engines, and spare components suffers from shortages that show no sign of easing. "The crisis affecting the OEMs from airframes, engines, and components has resulted in the hiking of general aircraft ownership and operating costs," Lamola noted. Carriers now manage deferred maintenance schedules. They extend the service life of aging equipment beyond what engineers would recommend. Delivery timelines for new aircraft slip further into the future with each passing quarter. That disrupts fleet planning and forces operators to manage with equipment that was never meant to operate this long.

The labor market presents a second pressure, equally immediate and equally difficult to navigate. Aviation skills shortages cut across every critical function: air traffic controllers, aircraft technicians, pilots. The years required to train these professionals means the shortage will persist regardless of how urgently the industry needs bodies in those roles. Many experienced professionals left during the pandemic and did not return. Competition for qualified staff now pits regional carriers against better-resourced airlines that can offer superior compensation packages. For SADC operators squeezed by margin pressure, paying market rates for scarce skills feels impossible. Yet operating without qualified personnel is impossible too. The result is that operating costs rise at the worst possible moment—when absorbing additional financial burdens approaches the breaking point.

Geopolitical developments reshape operational parameters. For SADC carriers, a third pressure arrives through Europe's sustainability mandates. Airlines serving European destinations now face blending requirements for Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Compliance increases fuel costs for carriers flying into EU airspace without producing corresponding revenue gains. Regional operators must choose between paying premium prices for SAF or accepting penalties for non-compliance. European competitors, by contrast, benefit from local supply chains and government subsidies that make compliance financially manageable. Implementation timelines assume capacities that do not exist in developing economies, forcing SADC-based airlines to absorb costs that carriers based in wealthier nations distribute across subsidised programs and infrastructure advantage.

The Squeeze

In synthesising these pressures, Lamola delivered an observation that captures the essence of the problem: "Flying is getting more and more expensive, and as such, the challenge of the margins that carriers in our region have to squeeze within this contest is becoming more challenging."

From every direction simultaneously come margin pressures. Rising fuel costs. Increasing labor expenses. Higher aircraft ownership and maintenance costs. New regulatory compliance burdens. Persistent weak demand that limits pricing power. Under this weight, carriers default to reactive mode. Cost cutting occurs wherever possible. Investments that might improve long-term competitiveness get deferred indefinitely. Routes that fail to cover direct operating costs are eliminated entirely, reducing network connectivity. In an attempt to reduce maintenance expense, aircraft retirement accelerates. Yet aging fleets increase operating costs and damage customer confidence.

What emerges is pure survival.

The Shift that Must Occur

The conference centred on a theme: "Stop, Believe, Improve." For Lamola, the priority was how AASA engages with regulators and policymakers.

The distinction matters. One approach broadcasts concerns to whoever will listen and hopes public pressure might influence policy. Call it the megaphone method. It has produced insufficient results. The second approach requires something different: relationships with regulators, demonstrated technical expertise, participation in policy development before regulations take effect.

No individual carrier possesses sufficient influence to alter regulatory frameworks or negotiate favourable terms with equipment manufacturers. Through collective action, AASA provides leverage that isolated operators lack. But the association must function as an effective advocate rather than merely as a forum for shared frustration.

"The challenge before AASA," Lamola explained, "is to transition from being a megaphone where we speak out to being a platform for organised engagement with all authorities that affect the prospects of the airline industry in our region."

What SADC airlines need are policy changes that address root causes. Liberalised market access arrangements allowing carriers to build viable networks. Regulatory frameworks that impose proportionate compliance costs rather than burdens calibrated for carriers with access to capital and subsidies. Coordinated infrastructure development that improves operational efficiency rather than replicating expensive redundancy. AASA must demonstrate technical competence that earns credibility with regulators and policymakers. The transition from megaphone to platform demands sustained effort and institutional discipline. Yet it represents the best prospect for creating conditions that allow regional carriers to compete effectively.

Where Will all This Lead?

Current trajectories may or may not reverse. Many factors lie beyond the control of regional airlines. Geopolitical developments will continue. The aerospace supply chain crisis will persist for years. Regulatory burdens will intensify before they ease. What the AASA conference accomplished was bringing industry leaders face to face with uncomfortable realities and extracting commitments to pursue solutions despite uncertain prospects.

The question that remains unanswered is whether that commitment will translate into the kind of coordinated, technically rigorous advocacy that policymakers actually respond to. For SADC airlines, that distinction will determine whether the next chapter is recovery or continued decline.